Following
on from my post last week, Apple announced yesterday that it will pay its first
dividend in 17 years and repurchase $10 billion of its stock. How did investors
respond? They seemed to like the news as Apple stock went up by 2.65%. Why? One
possible reason is that Apple could be signalling that it is confident that
future cash flows are going to be high. Another possibility is that by paying
out some of its $98.6b in cash, it is assuring investors in a post-Jobs world
that managers will not dissipate cash flows.
My colleague and former PhD student Gareth Campbell has created a website about the British Railway Mania - click here . This episode has been described by the Economist as probably the greatest bubble in human history. Gareth's website provides background on the Mania and posits some explanations for the 'bubble'. In his explanation of why the bubble happened, Gareth places a lot of emphasis on investor myopia regarding future dividends and uncalled capital. His study of investors during the episode does not support the view that this episode was fuelled by naive and irrational investors.