What happens when capital flows all of a sudden stop and begin to reverse? From 2000 to 2008, one half of Europe (the PIIGS) received huge capital inflows from the other half as well as from overseas. In 2009, there was a sudden stop and a capital-account reversal, followed by an economic crisis. But, we've been here before. In a post at VOX, Oliver Accominotti and Barry Eichengreen compare this recent sudden stop to a similar episode which occurred in Europe in the late 1920s. The working paper on which this post is based can be found here. Hat tip - Chris Colvin.
My colleague and former PhD student Gareth Campbell has created a website about the British Railway Mania - click here . This episode has been described by the Economist as probably the greatest bubble in human history. Gareth's website provides background on the Mania and posits some explanations for the 'bubble'. In his explanation of why the bubble happened, Gareth places a lot of emphasis on investor myopia regarding future dividends and uncalled capital. His study of investors during the episode does not support the view that this episode was fuelled by naive and irrational investors.
