Skip to main content

King's Speech

Sir Mervyn King gave a speech live on Radio 4 yesterday evening.  You can listen to it or read the transcript here.  This was the first peacetime talk on radio by a Governor of the Bank of England since Montagu Norman's 1939 talk on the Great Depression. 

King admitted that the Bank of England could have done more to prevent the recent banking crisis.  In his speech, he stated that "with the benefit of hindsight, we should have shouted from the rooftops that a system had been built in which banks were too important to fail, that banks had grown too quickly and borrowed too much, and that so-called 'light-touch' regulation hadn't prevented any of this."  As someone who has studied Norman's papers at the Bank of England, I suspect that if he had been Governor in the run up to 2008, he would have done more to prevent the crisis occurring.  However, it is probably harsh to criticise King on this point as he was simply operating within the new institutional framework imposed by Gordon Brown and New Labour in 1997.  The question for me, however, is whether the crisis would have been as severe had the institutional framework not changed in 1997.

King also argued that banks need to hold more capital in future because it prevents banks taking excessive risks.  I agree that capital is important in constraining bank risk-taking, but I think that we need to go further and have banks hold contingent capital, whereby shareholders face calls on their wealth if banks run out of capital.  Incidentally, the Chancellor was yesterday resisting attempts by other EU economies to weaken the Basel III capital adequacy proposals (click here). 


Popular posts from this blog

The CEO: The Rise and Fall of Britain's Captains of Industry

Michael Aldous and I had our book The CEO: The Rise and Fall of Britain's Captains of Industry published a few weeks ago. You can find out more about it and buy it at Cambridge University Press's website . It is also available at Amazon , Waterstones , and Barnes & Noble .  The CEO has already been reviewed in The Sunday Times , The Observer and Financial Times .

The Railway Mania

My colleague and former PhD student Gareth Campbell has created a website about the British Railway Mania - click here . This episode has been described by the Economist as probably the greatest bubble in human history. Gareth's website provides background on the Mania and posits some explanations for the 'bubble'. In his explanation of why the bubble happened, Gareth places a lot of emphasis on investor myopia regarding future dividends and uncalled capital. His study of investors during the episode does not support the view that this episode was fuelled by naive and irrational investors. 

How Valuable Are Connections?

Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak and Todd Mitton have written a paper on whether firms connected to Timothy Geithner benefited from these connections. They do so by looking at how stocks of these firms reacted to the announcement that he was a nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008. They find that there were large abnormal returns for connected firms. Below is the paper's abstract and the full paper is available here . The announcement of Timothy Geithner as nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008 produced a cumulative abnormal return for financial firms with which he had a connection. This return was about 6% after the first full day of trading and about 12% after ten trading days. There were subsequently abnormal negative returns for connected firms when news broke that Geithner's confirmation might be derailed by tax issues. Excess returns for connected firms may reflect the perceived impact of relying on the advice of a small ne...