Skip to main content

Negative Equity in Ireland


A recent report by Davy Stockbrokers has found the following:

1. 50% of all Irish mortgages are in negative equity.
2. At March 2012, 13.4% of owner-occupier mortgages were more than 90 days behind payment.  The arrears rate on buy-to-let mortgages was at least double that figure.
3. AIB, Bank of Ireland and Permanent TSB could lose as much as €11.5bn on Irish mortgages.

Despite these problems in the mortgage market, write-downs and repossessions have been negligible.  This could be because it would be politically unpopular to do so as Irish banks have received huge taxpayer bailouts.  Alternatively, maybe the banks and politicians are hoping for the housing market and economy to recover.  Whatever the reason, there is a wealth transfer in Ireland from those who don't have mortgages in negative equity towards those who do.  

A 'Ghost' Estate in Co. Leitrim

Popular posts from this blog

The CEO: The Rise and Fall of Britain's Captains of Industry

Michael Aldous and I had our book The CEO: The Rise and Fall of Britain's Captains of Industry published a few weeks ago. You can find out more about it and buy it at Cambridge University Press's website . It is also available at Amazon , Waterstones , and Barnes & Noble .  The CEO has already been reviewed in The Sunday Times , The Observer and Financial Times .

The Railway Mania

My colleague and former PhD student Gareth Campbell has created a website about the British Railway Mania - click here . This episode has been described by the Economist as probably the greatest bubble in human history. Gareth's website provides background on the Mania and posits some explanations for the 'bubble'. In his explanation of why the bubble happened, Gareth places a lot of emphasis on investor myopia regarding future dividends and uncalled capital. His study of investors during the episode does not support the view that this episode was fuelled by naive and irrational investors. 

How Valuable Are Connections?

Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak and Todd Mitton have written a paper on whether firms connected to Timothy Geithner benefited from these connections. They do so by looking at how stocks of these firms reacted to the announcement that he was a nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008. They find that there were large abnormal returns for connected firms. Below is the paper's abstract and the full paper is available here . The announcement of Timothy Geithner as nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008 produced a cumulative abnormal return for financial firms with which he had a connection. This return was about 6% after the first full day of trading and about 12% after ten trading days. There were subsequently abnormal negative returns for connected firms when news broke that Geithner's confirmation might be derailed by tax issues. Excess returns for connected firms may reflect the perceived impact of relying on the advice of a small ne...