What investment strategy should investors pursue? Should investors employ a buy-and-hold strategy whereby they buy stocks and hold on to them for a long period or should they be active investors constantly buying and selling stocks? The latter strategy implies that investors discern movements in the business cycle, whereas the former implies that investors ignore short-term fluctuations and are more interested in the long-term trend of economic growth. What my study of financial history has taught me is that over the long-run, a large proportion of portfolio returns come from dividends and reinvesting those dividends in your portfolio. Click here to read a piece by Tim Hartford which discusses the investment performance of Neil Woodford, someone who has taken a long view on stocks and been very successful.
My colleague and former PhD student Gareth Campbell has created a website about the British Railway Mania - click here . This episode has been described by the Economist as probably the greatest bubble in human history. Gareth's website provides background on the Mania and posits some explanations for the 'bubble'. In his explanation of why the bubble happened, Gareth places a lot of emphasis on investor myopia regarding future dividends and uncalled capital. His study of investors during the episode does not support the view that this episode was fuelled by naive and irrational investors.
