The Bundesbank has recently released a report on the state of the German property market - click here for the report and here for the Economist's coverage of the story. The Bundesbank fears that property prices are 20% overvalued. Is this concern an example of the Bundesbank's inert conservatism or is its concern well placed? Given that the Great Crash of 2008 and the Eurozone crisis had their roots in overvalued property markets, the Bundesbank is probably correct to be concerned about this development. In addition, the ECB's low interest rates will make it relatively easy for borrowers to finance house purchases in Germany.
My colleague and former PhD student Gareth Campbell has created a website about the British Railway Mania - click here . This episode has been described by the Economist as probably the greatest bubble in human history. Gareth's website provides background on the Mania and posits some explanations for the 'bubble'. In his explanation of why the bubble happened, Gareth places a lot of emphasis on investor myopia regarding future dividends and uncalled capital. His study of investors during the episode does not support the view that this episode was fuelled by naive and irrational investors.