The Office for National Statistics in the UK has just released its estimates for GDP in the last quarter of 2012 (click here). GDP fell by 0.3%, which means that if GDP growth in the first quarter of 2013 is negative that the UK is officially back in recession for the third time since the 2008 financial crisis. GDP in the UK is still below its 2007 level, and the big question for many economists is when will GDP get back to its 2007 level? Many commentators are talking about a decade or more of lost growth. Maybe it would have been better to let the banks fail in 2008 rather than endure a sickly economy for a decade or more!
My colleague and former PhD student Gareth Campbell has created a website about the British Railway Mania - click here . This episode has been described by the Economist as probably the greatest bubble in human history. Gareth's website provides background on the Mania and posits some explanations for the 'bubble'. In his explanation of why the bubble happened, Gareth places a lot of emphasis on investor myopia regarding future dividends and uncalled capital. His study of investors during the episode does not support the view that this episode was fuelled by naive and irrational investors.